Prof. Dr. Mahmood Hosseini, Chair of Earthquake Research and Application Center (DAUM) and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cemal Geneş, Executive Board Member of DAUM performed an evaluation regarding the latest earthquakes in the Aegean Sea.
The Aegean-Anatolian region, located in the collision zone between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates (Fig. 1), undergoes a series of diverse and complex long-lasting tectonic processes.
Figure 1: Tectonic setting of the Aegean-Anatolia region. Major faults and thrusts are reported in red and black, respectively, while minor tectonic lineaments are reported as dashed black lines. The black arrows represent the GNSS motion across the Anatolian and Aegean blocks. Holocene and Pleistocene volcanoes are reported as yellow and red triangles, respectively.
According to seismologists, recent earthquakes in the Aegean Sea have been triggered by igneous sources and hydrothermal activity. It can be said that these earthquakes indicate the beginning of a new volcanic activity. Turkey and the island of Cyprus are unlikely to be affected by these earthquakes. However, if the faults in the region produce an earthquake greater than 7, there is a tsunami danger of the coasts of Kuşadası-Bodrum-Datça. Therefore, necessary modeling and analysis should be made and precautions should be taken according to the results. It is very unlikely that the northwest of the TRNC will be affected by this tsunami.
It is known that there have been many earthquakes in history in the triangle formed by the islands of Santorini, Amorgos and Astropalya, which are under the control of Greece. In terms of magnitude, the last time there were two severe earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.4 in 1956, and in line with the earthquakes, a tsunami occurred in the region and caused damage to the islands. The north and south of the Bodrum Peninsula, Datça, Güllük Bay and Didim were also affected by the tsunami. However, no tsunami had been detected in the TRNC. There is no need to be uneasy about the current situation. In this regard, scientists from Greece and Turkey are closely monitoring both the earthquake-related and tsunami-related issues, and at the same time, all earthquakes are observed seismically with many devices. With these earthquakes, volcanic activity on the island of Santorini has not started in a significant way for the time being.
A tsunami may occur if the intensity of the earthquake is greater than 6.5 and vertical movement occurs on the seafloor due to shaking. However, the magnitude of this tsunami could be the magnitude experienced in the Aegean Sea, Bodrum and Sığacık, or the magnitude experienced in 1956. Earthquakes in the oceans will not happen in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas with waves rising 30-40 meters as in Japan and Indonesia.
Tremors in the Aegean Sea will not have any relation to triggering possible earthquakes in faults in Marmara Sea or faults near to Cyprus. However, it should never be forgotten that the faults in and near Cyprus can produce earthquakes at any time. As such, the multi-disciplinary and comprehensive ‘Earthquake Risk Reduction’ program should be activated and followed in Cyprus as soon as possible.
Reference
[1] F. Sparacino, B. Galuzzi, M. Palano, M. Segou and C. Chiarabba, (2022). Seismic coupling for the Aegean - Anatolian region, Earth-Science Reviews 228, 103993.
